Since 21st April 2017 the EURO has charged higher against the USD and there are no clear signs that this strength is going to dissipate any time soon. There are a number of factors that explain the EUR has outperformed the USD. Macron’s win in the French Presidential Election, better numbers out of the Eurozone, troubles in the US for Trump and a growing possibility that key Republican reforms on tax and infrastructure spending will be delayed as Trump fights for credibility have all added uncertainty to the markets and with increasing talk of fewer rather than more tax cuts on the table its no wonder that the USD is struggling.
From a technical standpoint we are approaching a key level where USD BEARS may be gathering.
1.1209 is just above the key 1.1200 level and this is a significant Fibonacci level being the 38.3 Fib of the 2000 to 2006 high/low.
It seems certain we will see a pullback here but the strength of this pullback will telling. If this level holds then we could see a deep retrace in the fortunes of the EURO. However if we only see a minor pullback and we see this level re-tested and ultimately broken – this would be significant.
So for now we wait and see what happens. Price is currently 1.1193 so we’re getting to the key 1.1200 rapidly.
What happens subsequently will be interesting.